The Iraqi electronic daily Al-Rafidayn published an article on the complexity of reforming an absolute monarchy in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) while, at the same time, the country has to contend with powerful jihadist extremism, with the issue of succession and with the need to avoid antagonizing the Wahhabi religious institutions. Any shock regarding the stability of the regime or a change in its leadership raises concern in the rest of the Gulf region seeking to emerge from economic slowdown.

The Issue of Succession

King Abdullah took over the government in 2005 and while he seems to be in good health he is 86-years-old. This raises the issue of succession in the not too distant future. Most of the senior leaders are aging, including the heir to the throne, Prince Sultan who is in his 80s and was away from the kingdom for most of last year, reportedly being treated for cancer. During his absence, his brother, Prince Na’if, the powerful Minister of Interior, was promoted to the third most senior position in the kingdom, namely that of the second deputy prime minister [the king also serves as prime minister with Sultan as his first deputy]. While Abdullah has appointed a "Succession Board" to select the next king upon his death it is likely that the board will limit the choice to the 20 or so remaining sons of King Abdul Aziz, the founder of the Kingdom most of whom are in their 60s and 70s to avoid conflict within the next generation.

Apart from Prince Na’if, age 76, who is considered a member of the conservative branch of the family, there are a number of younger princes who might vie for the post, including Prince Mohammad, the son of Na’if who is in charge of fighting terrorism and was not long ago a target for assassination by Al-Qaeda. Another young prince is Khaled bin Sultan, the son of the heir to the throne, who serves as assistant to his father. Regardless of who will succeed Abdullah, no one expects significant changes in energy, economic and foreign affairs policies.

The Danger of Al-Qaeda

With the help of foreign experts, the Kingdom was able to put an end to Al-Qaeda’s campaign between 2003-2006 which sought to destabilize the regime and targeted residential areas for foreigners, embassies and oil installations. The Kingdom has destroyed many of Al-Qaeda’s key cells Al-inside its border but many members have moved to Yemen to organize a regional wing for Al-Qaeda centered there that seeks to overthrow the regime of the royal family.

The spotlight was focused on Al-Qaeda in Yemen in the wake of an attempt to blow up a passenger plane headed to United States last December and an earlier attempt on the life of Prince Na’if’s son, Mohammad, by a Saudi citizen who allegedly returned from Yemen to seek repentance. The struggle in Yemen between the regime and Al-Qaeda had extended into the Kingdom and resulted in a Saudi military intervention against Al-Qaeda-supported Huthis in Yemen.

Saudis are considering the construction of a fence along their 1650 km [1031 miles] long mountainous border with Yemen, but experts believe it would be difficult to control the border [Saudi Arabia is already in the process of constructing a fence on its eastern border with Iraq.]

Population Growth and Unemployment

Insuring a bright future for the Saudi youth is an important step to fight Islamic extremism from which the Kingdom suffers. Most of the September 11 perpetrators were Saudi nationals and many others have joined the extremists in Iraq.

One of the biggest challenges faced by the regime is providing work and shelter to a population that numbers 18 million, two-thirds of which are below the age of 30. Unemployment last year was officially listed at 10.5 percent. [An editorial in the Saudi newspaper Arab News of July 3 points out that there are 800,000 Saudis with academic diplomas who are waiting for government jobs. The government already employees one million individuals. The editorial urges the universities to encourage their graduates to seek jobs in the private sector. Unfortunately, the private firms in the Kingdom appear to prefer foreign workers who are better trained and more productive.]

The King has sought to reform both the education and justice systems, which are ancient but he faces resistance from within the Wahhabi religious establishment which entered into a treaty with Al-Saud family in the early part of the 20th century that gives them the final say on religious matters. While the kingdom has spent billions of dollars on new universities, there has been no serious attempt to change the curriculum for fear of antagonizing the religious establishment.

Transparency in the financial sector remains a matter of concern to private investors. The Saudi stock exchange is the largest in the Arab world but financial reporting remains deficient.

Relations with Iran

Saudi Arabia is concerned about the Iranian influence in the Gulf but at the same time, it wishes to avoid finding itself entangled in a conflict resulting from the Iranian nuclear program. The Gulf countries are also concerned that that they could become the target for Iranian revenge in the event that a struggle erupts. For Saudi Arabia, the issue of conflict with Iran is twofold: first, the Saudi oil installations are located across the Gulf from Iran; and second, the concentration of a Shi’a minority in the eastern territory of Saudi Arabia complains about discrimination [and is suspected of affinity with Iran].

The Memri blog