Just as the US-Ethiopian war against Somalia began in December, John Githong'o from his Oxford redoubt "prayed that the gates of hell have not been opened in the region as a result of this intervention."

Three months later, John's fears of a nightmare scenario still cannot be ruled out, as evidenced by the revolting desecration on Mogadishu's streets of dead Somali and Ethiopian soldiers' bodies, followed by the downing of the plane supporting the African Union peace-keepers. Not many African countries will want to send troops for the AU mission.

Things are going to get worse in Somalia because the transitional government has shown itself completely incapable of taking the steps urgently needed to avert disaster.

These steps were spelled out at a fascinating meeting organised in Addis Ababa a fortnight ago by Ethiopia's well-known Inter-Africa Group, which brought together some of the region's most knowledgeable scholars as well as senior Igad and AU officials, and ambassadors from countries backing the transitional government.

WHILE THERE WAS INTENSE disagreement on many issues, the meeting agreed that a politically- and clan-inclusive approach was essential to restore Somali peace. President Abdullahi Yusuf's representative assured participants that this was indeed the government's policy.

A few days later, however, Ethiopian and Somali Government troops stormed a neighbourhood of Mogadishu's dominant Hawiye clan that supported the ousted Islamic Courts and is a rival to the Dorad clan of President Abdullahi. The attack resulted in a large number of dead, including the above reprisals.

Few of the independent experts at the Addis conference would have been surprised by the government's assault. Most of them had said that an inclusive strategy would not be pursued by Mr Abdullahi, given his deeply clannish outlook.

So much earlier than was the case in Iraq, the attempt to instal a pro-American government in Somalia is unravelling. The patient diplomacy needed to address a difficult situation for the United States was eschewed in favour of the now-reflexive Bush administration resort to force when faced with a challenge in the Muslim world.

This is a ruinous strategy, since its multiple post-9/11 applications have been rarely accompanied by any certainty that they will deliver the desired outcome. In Somalia, the US helped topple the Islamic Courts Union and the peace they had brought, but the government has no hope of winning national support because it was put in place by the two countries most reviled by Somalis.

The greatest indictment of President Bush's reign is that he turned many relatively stable situations into murderous chaos in pursuit of short-term goals, negating his own strategic aim of a more secure world for the US.

Outcome aside, this was the most illegal war fought in recent history. It violated the UN Charter, and also two explicit Security Council resolutions adopted in 1993 (arms embargo) and in December (which continued much of the embargo and forbade neighbouring countries from sending troops into Somalia).

Kenya also blemished its excellent international record by contravening humanitarian laws by turning over scores of Kenyan and other alleged ICU supporters to Somalia, where they might have faced torture or death.

Underlying the multiple failed interventions in the Muslim world is the Bush administration's self-serving conflation of all Islamists with the tiny minority of violent extremists. The West must recognise that political Islam is now an established and growing force and must be engaged.

THE US CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND International Studies wrote in a paper last month that "political Islam needs to be accorded a role in deciding Somalia's future dispensation. Islamic charities, businesses and networks remain among the country's most robust and enduring." This applies globally, too.

If another protracted crisis is to be avoided in Somalia, the US must let the UN name a senior Special Representative to head a new political mission, under which the AU peace-keeping mission would be quietly put on the back burner. Peace will only be possible if Somalis are convinced that a genuine attempt to create a broad-based governing coalition is being led by non-interested parties, not by the US and its allies.

Posted 30 Mar 30, 2007, Garowe Online

http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Opinion_20/Only_Bold_Action_in_Somalia_Will_Put_End_to_the_Chaos.shtml